The Vote to Elect the Iranian President
IPPO poll on 17 May 2017, two days before the presidential election, show that both Hassan Rouhani and Ebrahim Raisi’s votes are on the rise. If the pattern of participation and voting on Election Day is similar to the pattern represented on the May 17th poll, Hassan Rouhani will win in the first round of voting (Iran’s electoral system is a two-round system).
The results show that 63% of those respondents that say: 1) they will definitely or likely participate in the 19 May 2017 election and 2) are inclined to vote for one of the running candidates choose Rouhani as their first choice candidate. After Rouhani, Raisi is the runner-up with 32% of the votes. 5% of the respondents are still voting for candidates that have either dropped out of the presidential race, their names are not on the ballot or are or running elsewhere in other elections (see the above chart).
If we take into account all the respondents that say they will probably vote on Election Day, still 16% of this pool are undecided and 20% of them do not wish to disclose the name of their preferred candidate (see the chart below).
If we set aside those giving miscellaneous and irrelevant answers as well as the two aforementioned groups of the undecided voters and those who do not disclose their preferred candidate, on Election Day Rouhani will win with 63% and Raisi will be the runner up with 32% of the votes.
These figures are the winning probabilities and they are produced from tracking polls and estimating. The estimate of the outcome of the election at this point is as such that Hassan Rouhani has 95% chance to secure 59% to 67% of the votes. Similarly, IPPO estimates that Ebrahim Raisi has a 95% chance to obtain 28% to 36% of the votes on 19 May. If within 48 hours to Election Day the current voting pattern is maintained then the IPPO calculations and estimations would hold true on Election Day.
Post Ghalibaf’s Drop Out: Development of Voting Patterns
Subsequent to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf announcing that he has dropped out of the race, his votes among the respondents of the IPPO polls dropped. Those who continue to mention Ghalibaf’s name as their first choice candidate are respondents who are not aware of Ghalibaf’s withdrawal or respondents loyal to him that refuse to accept he is not on the ballot. The results from the past three days show that Ghalibaf’s vote on the 2nd day of his withdrawal decreased by 6% on 16 May to a total of %10 of the votes. On the third day after Ghalibaf’s drop out of the race, his votes decreased by a further 7% to %3 percent of the votes. That is to say that Ghalibaf’s votes from 14 May to 17 May dropped from 19% to 3% respectively. The 16% decrease in Ghalibaf’s votes as well as the decrease in the undecided voters corresponds to an increase of 7% to Rouhani’s votes and 16% to Raisi’s votes.
Vote Transfer Post Ghalibaf’s Withdrawal
In the past two days, IPPO interviewers asked respondents who selected Ghalibaf as their first choice candidate that in light of their candidate’s drop out, who they are going to vote for next. Responses obtained indicate that 30% of Ghalibaf’s votes are transferred to Ebrahim Raisi, 26% to Rouhani, 33% to the undecided pool and 9% are left void as respondents plan to not choose anyone other than Ghalibaf or they choose options not on the ballot. Considering that in the past two days Ghalibaf has had an average of 6.6% of the votes, the absolute value of number of votes that can possibly be transferred from the pool of Ghalibaf’s vote to Raisi and Rouhani are 2% and 1.7% respectively.
Voter Turnout
The voter turnouts that participants have mentioned have remained more or less steady in the past 10 days. However on 17 May 2017 the poll shows an increase in turnout as 77% of respondents say they are likely or very likely to vote on 19 May 2017 presidential election. In contrast, 12% say there is little chance or very little chance that they will participate in the elections. Besides the 7% of respondents that say they are somewhat likely to participate in the elections, 1% of the respondents have not yet reached a decision with regards to participation.
Projections of election participation rates in polls such as this one does not neatly translate to voter turnout rate on the day of the election. Projections of the voter turnout in polls are often more than the actual turnout on the day of the election; this is not unique to the Iranian context and is relevant to all pre-election polling.
In 2013 presidential election in Iran, the IPOS group polls announced a 78% voter turnout estimate. However, the actual voter turnout on Election Day was 73%. In light of 77% turnout rate of the respondents of IPPO polls in 2017, one can conclude that the actual turnout rate might be lower than this estimate and be around the actual figure from 2013; that is assuming that no major development occurs between 17 May and the Election Day on 19 May 2017.
Archive
You Can Find All Polls in the Archive Center.
Vote for 2 main candidates by Demographic factors
Voting Patterns: Demographic Factors
Profile of non participant eligible voters
Voter Turnout: to participate or to not participate
Voter Turnout by Age
According to participants own claims, younger age groups are less likely to vote on Election Day when compared to older age groups.
Voter Turnout; Level of Education
People with post secondary education are more likely to participate in the presidential election when compared to those who have not attended college or university.
Voter Turnout; Rural versus Urban
Those living in the rural areas of Iran are more likely to vote on Election Day when compared to those living in urban area.