The Vote to Elect the Iranian President
IPPO poll on 17 May 2017, two days before the presidential election, show that both Hassan Rouhani and Ebrahim Raisi’s votes are on the rise. If the pattern of participation and voting on Election Day is similar to the pattern represented on the May 17th poll, Hassan Rouhani will win in the first round of voting (Iran’s electoral system is a two-round system).
The results show that 63% of those respondents that say: 1) they will definitely or likely participate in the 19 May 2017 election and 2) are inclined to vote for one of the running candidates choose Rouhani as their first choice candidate. After Rouhani, Raisi is the runner-up with 32% of the votes. 5% of the respondents are still voting for candidates that have either dropped out of the presidential race, their names are not on the ballot or are or running elsewhere in other elections (see the above chart).
If we take into account all the respondents that say they will probably vote on Election Day, still 16% of this pool are undecided and 20% of them do not wish to disclose the name of their preferred candidate (see the chart below).
If we set aside those giving miscellaneous and irrelevant answers as well as the two aforementioned groups of the undecided voters and those who do not disclose their preferred candidate, on Election Day Rouhani will win with 63% and Raisi will be the runner up with 32% of the votes.
These figures are the winning probabilities and they are produced from tracking polls and estimating. The estimate of the outcome of the election at this point is as such that Hassan Rouhani has 95% chance to secure 59% to 67% of the votes. Similarly, IPPO estimates that Ebrahim Raisi has a 95% chance to obtain 28% to 36% of the votes on 19 May. If within 48 hours to Election Day the current voting pattern is maintained then the IPPO calculations and estimations would hold true on Election Day.