الصفحة الرئيسية iPPO Group
The Vote to Elect the President:
About 60 percent of people who say 1) they will definitely or likely participate in the May 2017 election and 2) are inclined to vote for one of the six available candidates, have chosen Hassan Rouhani as their first choice. In other words, if the election were to be held today, Hassan Rouhani would have probably been elected president in the first round of the election. (see the above chart).
However, in the coming days by carrying out more pre-election polls, and as the election day gets closer, it can better be determined whether these patterns will hold steady or they will shift and transform.
It is notable that 36% of voters remain undecided at this time. The undecided voters’ turnout can drastically change the current ranking pattern among candidates. The undecided voter’s final decision can also potentially take the elections to a run-off.
Currently if we consider the entire population, one-quarter is voting for Rouhani, one-tenth for Ghalibaf and one-twentieth for Raisi.
Second Choice Voter Preferences
Respondents were asked if they were to change their minds by election day, which candidate they’ll choose to vote for. The response to this question generates a different pattern than the first-choice candidate results.
Even though Hassan Rouhani still remains the front-runner with 13% of the votes, but here, Eshaq Jahangiri, Rouhani’s vice president, and Raisi both take the second place with about 12% of the vote of the respondents of this poll. Ghalibaf, Hashemitaba and Mirsalim follow them in descending order. Eshaq Jahangiri, Rouhani’s current vice president, has the support of 12%. Raisi is sharing the same rank with Jahangiri and has 12% of the votes of the respondents of this poll. After Jahangiri and Raisi, respondents choose Ghalibaf, Hashemitaba and Mir-Salim in a descending order.
However, still a quarter of the respondents are undecided and 17% of them stand firm with their first choice insisting on not having a second choice candidate.
The Most Unfavorable Candidate
Most respondents declined to indicate which candidate is so unfavorable that they would not vote for him under any circumstance. In other words, almost 60% of the respondents either say that no one among the candidates is that unpopular in their view, or that they cannot or do not wish to name the most unfavorable candidate.
The ranking for the most unfavorable candidate is similar to the ranking of the most favorable candidate.
The highest rating of unfavorability is of Hassan Rouhani with nearly 8%, Ghalibaf (5%) and Raisi (%4) follow Rouhani. Hashemitaba, Mirsalim, and Jahangiri are standing in a descending order of unpopularity.
Jahangiri with less that 1% stands as the least unfavorable candidate.
Respondents Predicting Election Results
Respondents’ forecasting of the election results and the winning candidate will portray the election milieu and distinguish between respondents’ own inclination and he or she’s predictions of the final outcome.
In this poll, respondents’ predictions about a particular candidate as having a winning chance does not differ much from their inclination towards candidates.
In fact, the pattern of respondents’ prediction of the election outcome resembles that of the first choice candidates with Rouhani, Ghalibaf, and Riais ranking first to third respectively.
Yet 40% of the respondents say that they cannot guess or predict the outcome.