The Vote to Elect the Iranian President
One day after the airing of the third presidential debate, the IPPO poll show that Hassan Rouhani is still the leading candidate with quite a distance from his two main opponents. In the past three days 53% of those who say: 1) they will definitely or likely participate in the May 2017 election and 2) are inclined to vote for one of the six running candidates, have voted for Hassan Rouhani as their first choice. After Rouhani, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s votes have somewhat increased to 23%. Ebrahim Raisi stands in the third position with 22% of the respondents’ votes. The three other candidates, Mir-Salim, Hashemitaba and Jahangiri are all below 2% in rating (see the above chart).
One should take into account that the margin of error of this poll is between 3-4%. Therefore it is important to focus on tracking, processes and development of patterns involved. Therefore the increase or decrease of a few figures does not indicate a decisive development, unless it is indicative of a meaningful trend.
The current figures are the results of poll tracking from the past three days – that is one day before the third presidential debate, the day of the debate and the day after the debate. To better understand the possible impact of the third debate on the figures, one should closely monitor the poll results from the next few days.
Although the number of undecided voters is steadily falling, seven days to the Election Day still 25% of respondents are undecided and 22% do not express a clear opinion as to whom they may vote for or do express a clear opinion. The undecided voters and those declining to disclose their decisions, and those who do not have a clear opinion can change the outcome and muddle the current patterns (see the chart to the left).