Poll Results of May 15
The Vote to Elect the Iranian President
The continuing trend of the past three day has been an increase in Hassan Rouhani’s and Ebrahim Raisi’s votes and a decrease in Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s votes. Although the current data is mainly from two days prior to Ghalibaf’s withdrawal as well as the day that he announced he is leaving the presidential race. The results from the IPPO poll in the past three days show that Hassan Rouhani has kept his distance from the runner-up and his main opponent Raisi. In the past three days 58% of those who say: 1) they will definitely or likely participate in the May 2017 election and 2) are inclined to vote for one of the six running candidates, have voted for Hassan Rouhani as their first choice. Ebrahim Raisi stands in the runner-up position with 23% of the respondents’ votes.The three other candidates are all standing blow 3% rating and do not seem to have a chance in the upcoming presidential elections on 19 May 2017.
The uncertain voters are more or less a quarter of the total number of respondents. If we consider those who do not wish to disclose their votes, and those who are choosing a candidate that is not on the ballot, more than 50% of the respondents do not give a specific answer as to whom they will vote for in an election that will be held in four days (see the chart below). In light of these facts it is very difficult to forecast the election results at this point.
Voter Turnout
The rates of participants who are going to vote have remained more or less the same in the past 10 days. Around 72% of respondents say they are likely or very likely to vote in the May 2017 presidential election. In contrast, 16% say there is little chance or very little chance that they will participate in the elections. Besides the 8% of respondents that say they are somewhat likely to participate in the elections, 4% of the respondents have not yet reached a decision with regards to participation.
Projections of election participation rates in polls such as this one does not neatly translate to voter turnout rate on the day of the election. Projections of the voter turnout in polls are often more than the actual turnout on the day of the election; this is not unique to the Iranian context and is relevant to all pre-election polling.
The Alternative Vote 1
Aside from the aforementioned patterns related to the “second choice candidate”, now that data has accumulated we can better respond to this question: “If the respondents were to change their decision until the Election Day, who seems to be the more likely second choice alternative?”
The results show that voters are more determined to vote for Hassan Rouhani. 23% of respondents say that they will not vote for any other candidate, except for Rouhani. The figures for those who will not vote for any other candidate except for Ghalibaf and Raisi are 16% and 13% respectively.
More so, 24% of those who chose Rouhani as their first choice are willing to vote for rival candidates Ghalibaf and Raisi. While 50% of Ghalibaf voters and 61% of Raisi voters are willing to vote for their first choice candidates’ opponent.
Overall, of the 25% of voters who are voting for Ghalibaf and Raisi, 36% are willing to vote for Rouhani as the alternative candidate.
15% of respondents who have chosen Rouhani as their first choice say that if they do not vote for Rouhani, they will vote for Ghalibaf. In contrast, 20% of Ghalibaf voters say if they do not vote for Ghalibaf, they will vote for Rouhani. 11% of Rouhani voters say that if they do not vote for him, they will vote for Raisi; while 16% of Raisi voters choose Rouhani as their second alternative vote.
Comparing alternative choices between Raisi and Ghalibaf’s voters: 44% of the Raisi voters choose Ghalibaf as their second alternative; yet 30% of Ghalibaf voters are willing to choose Raisi if they were not to vote for Ghalibaf.
The Alternative Vote 2
Overall, for 36% of the votes that Rouhani receives as an alternative candidate for Ghalibaf and Raiais, he gives %26 of his voters to the two opponents. In other words, the net balance of Rouhani’s votes in this category is +10%. Ghalibaf on the other hand receives only 50% of the voters from the pool of Rouhani and Raisi’s first choice voters while giving 59% of his voter to Rouhani and Raisi. In other words, the net balance of Ghalibaf’s votes, as a second choice alternative is -9%. Raisi also receives a negative balance of %10 percent. For every 51% of voters he loses to Ghalibaf and Rouhani in the second choice category, Raisi only receives 41% from the pool of Ghalibaf and Rouhani’s first choice ballots.
Survey Methodology:
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• This polling was carried out at a national level in Iran from 11 May 2017 to 14 May 2017 and reported on a four-day rolling average basis.
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• The interviews were conducted via phone. Interviewers were trained – both for general skills of phone polling and for the specific needs of this survey. The interviewers were selected post training after passing an interviewing skills exam.
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• The sample size was 1376 Iranians, 18 years and older, who were residing in Iran and were selected randomly.
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• Sampling methodology is a two-stage proportional sampling. It’s on the basis of each of the service operators’ market share and then simple random sampling.
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• Assuming maximum variation, the results of this survey can generalize to the whole of the 18 years and older Iranian (resident in Iran) with a margin of error of ±2.64 to ±3.92 for the 95% confidence interval (based on responses to questions).
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• The data were weighted based on the last available National Iranian Census (2011) with gender, age group and place of residence (urban/rural) as weighting variables.
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• Farsi native speaking interviewers conducted the interviews during daylight hours, local time.
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• The results of each interview was assessed twice by the interviewer and the supervising team – in terms of respondent’s trust in the interviewer and the interviewer’s assessment of the respondents’ honesty.
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• Those respondents who had received very low scores for trust and honesty have been removed from the random sample.